Buy the coin, not the holder

This statement of wisdom seems like a cliche in these desperate times, but I am beginning to see how it’s more relevant to today’s coin market even more so than usual.

Since 2020, TPG companies have changed. Third party grading, as we knew it, has been replaced by unnecessarily stringent, arbitrary measures, combined with massive turnaround times. The motivations for these changes could be many including changes of management, massive backlogs, personnel shortages, and the emergence of CAC as a new grading company. This is the new normal.

A late friend and mentor of mine, Glenn Franks, was a staunch opponent of holders. “I buy coins, I don’t buy holders!” he would say. Glenn would crack out coins from PCGS or NGC to put them into his album, while keeping the grading tab. His approach may have been of a dying breed, but he had his reasons. It’s something that should be respected, and never forgotten.

Market grading changes. The coin is what you buy and that’s not supposed to change. It doesn’t matter what PCGS or NGC says. An undergraded coin will continue to bring better prices than overgraded ones. This won’t change.

Know what you have, and be careful not to sell yourself short.

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Dealers to Avoid part 4

Dealers who won’t engage in 2-way business:

“We don’t buy coins at shows”

So this is your shop? Is this your fancy display? That’s all the coins you got?
Hmmm maybe the only way you’d make money is by ripping off the public by only buying coins at 20% of bid? It’s ok, your secret is safe with me.

Or just be honest with me and tell me straight up. I‘m too tough with you. Or you just don’t like me.

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“I’m not buying anymore coins. I’m retired”

Then. Retire. Already.
Or sell me your collection cheap.
Oh wait, you aren’t really retiring aren’t you?

What a load of horseshi* I mean seriously

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The challenges of type coin collecting

Ah, the backbone of coin collecting. Alas, we’re not in it for the glory. We are in it for the love. If you’re a type coin collector like me, you may have been appalled by the recent swings of the coin market. I‘m talking about the downward ones.

We are not specialist collectors. Unless we’re in the same boat as D. Brent Pogue, chances are we won’t be owning any of those so-called “trophy” coins. To be able to own a coin that actually makes headlines will be, for most of us, a pipe dream.

Is that the price of wanting to have it all?
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At least our boundaries aren’t way so limited. Of coin collectors, we probably have the most fun.

Robert Shippee’s book Pleasure & Profit presents an excellent example of a type coin collection to aspire to. And we learn that if we play this game well and carefully enough, we don’t have to lose.

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Paper asset traders: whatever it is you’re doing, please stop it!

Yet another news report of an all time high in equities.

The money ain’t real. Even though not everyone knows it, you know it.
So why are you pushing it? People were already saying the R word.

If only that anatomy in your body has a mind of its own, then it can dictate all that are attached to it to perfectly let it get up and get into the engagement when required; but it has none and so you’ll have to bear the expenses of your medications in your local pharmacy to purchase medications. levitra 40 mg With prolonged buying viagra prescription used, it will make your external as well as eliminates vaginal dryness by giving with appropriate lubrication to the women organ along with permitting pain-free sexual intercourse with their partner. Beside having a good figure, losing weight can benefit us also in terms of healthy results. cheapest levitra This component makes viagra cipla india sure that the medicine works properly by giving away enough blood to the organs. When the chickens come home to roost, you know how it goes. The higher you go, the harder you fall.

Actually, the harder we all fall. Gradual growth and development of the economy should be everyone’s goal.  Not the unnatural numbers game being played now.

For the sake of our country and the future of our economy, please stop the madness.

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Dealers to avoid (part 3: my negative experiences with dealers at the brouse floor)

Welcome to the 3rd segment of my Dealers to Avoid series. Here, I will talk about actual experiences I have had, and can quite possibly happen to you too.  Dealers to avoid doesn’t always mean you shouldn’t do business with them anymore, although there are some relationships that cannot be repaired. Due to potential liability issues, I will not name names so as to protect myself.

 

Incident #1: The Lying Kid

This happened at a major US coin show and involved a large, well-known coin company. I saw a coin I wanted at one of the booths. A young man, probably in his 20s was working there. I viewed the coin and proceed to make a deal regarding the price with him. Once we agreed to a price, I told him I will be stepping out to complete a deal and then come back. When I came back, the young man quoted me a price $100 higher. There were now more staff there, older men who worked at the table. I confronted the kid about the price we agreed to and he declared that no agreement was ever made. Ok, if you made a mistake, just admit it. Why would you need to lie? It’s a bit scary to work with liars.

 

Incident #2: The Tired Dealer

At a coin show, I show my coins to a dealer and we haggle over the price. He made an offer and I did not agree. So I proposed to make a counteroffer. This dealer was apparently too tired and told me he didn’t want to work with me anymore. He thought I was being too tough. There was a bit of misunderstanding and drama, but in the end at  least he was cool enough to admit he was a little tired and told me to come back at another time.

 

Incident #3: What is it with kids these days?

Not sure if this is what most kids do these days, but I have a habit of taking notes on my phone, including information about my coins, their prices, and other numbers. Maybe I look young, but I was 42 when this happened. When doing business with dealers, I often glance down on my phone, sometimes when they talk to me. When they talk I listen, and one time a dealer was offended because he was giving me his numbers while I was taking notes down on my phone. I had to reassure him about what I was doing, that I wasn’t ignoring him, and that I was actually trying to write down what he was saying to me on my phone. Communication is key to a successful business transaction, and it’s not always easy.

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Incident #4: A dealer in Taiwan

I visited a dealer‘s room while I was in Taiwan. It was one room among many other dealers who had their own separate rooms. At one of the dealers, I asked to see some of his coins. He takes them out and I examine them. I ask for a price and decided not to buy. Apparently this offended him and he put the coins away quickly and wouldn’t show me anything else. I walked out.

 

Incident #5: Call Security!

At a major US coin show, there was a dealer who was often busy but I have done business  with before. He is an elder man, and our transactions seemed to go smoothly although we didn’t always agree on price and nor do we always conclude with a sale. This is not uncommon in my experience. Just a few days ago, I visit him, trying to catch a time when there were not too many people at his table. Apparently a bit vexed, he replied “not now.” I got the message, so I came back later. And now, I was told the real reason. He tells me he doesn’t want to deal with me, saying that I was too tough. Now, when a dealer tells me he doesn’t want to do business with me anymore, I take it very seriously. I asked why. He didn’t give me any specifics, just didn’t want to work with me. He has a right to do so sure, but this bothered me. I would have wanted a chance to resolve any issues, but it wasn’t before long that this man felt more irritated and straight up told me to go away. I didn’t go away. I thought there may be something else that was bothering him or some kind of misunderstanding. It felt all wrong. Not sure about what to say, I asked him if there was something that I could do. He said no. The man then told me to go away or else he was calling security. Maybe he felt harassed, but I think this was a bad decision on his part. When you threaten to call security on someone, you should expect an emotional reaction. Doing something like that is very provocative, and I can tell you, people aren’t robots and each one will react differently, possibly in unfriendly ways. I wasn‘t going to let him push me around like this. I would have wanted to talk more, I wasn‘t there to steal from him or harass him. I didn’t leave right away, I took it slow. When he got more angry, that’s when I walked away.

Coin collecting should be an enjoyable hobby and most dealers I have encountered are friendly and enthusiastic. We are professionals at a coin show to do business. Take your drama outside. Stop being a baby and talk it out like a man without calling the cops. If you don’t want to talk just say talk later. This was the most rotten experience in my 7 years of active brouse floor business. What a nut-case!

 

more to come…

 

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The not so great American Coin Hunt

Found any nice coins in change lately? Neither have I.

I was given to understand big dealers poured massive amounts of collectible coins back into circulation?

Who is able to verify it? Any independent 3rd party? I don’t think so…

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Maybe they shouldn’t make a big deal out of something like this?

No, putting 2 corroded wheat cents into circulation doesn’t count.

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A brief history of modern silver

It all started in 1964. Many things happened before that time too but this is the year when the bad money started driving out the good money.

Silver went up and down, in a slow steady way until around 1973 something else happened: Nixon announced the end of the the silver standard. Since then, silver had been on the up and up. People got a little excited and then silver exploded with the infamous Hunt Brothers.

As we all know, the Hunt Brothers were taken down. Then the excitement waned gradually, kind of like a slow crash. The 1980s weren’t a good time for silver. The only up year was in 1987 and it was a really small one.

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Things didn’t change much until 2002. This was the year when silver began to make steady gains every year, culminating in the financial crisis of 2008. It went as high as $20. As the economy crashed, it seemed that everyone got confused and silver went down again for a bit. But it was only a brief time until it caught on. By the end of 2010, silver was $30. In 2011, it got to the peak of $49.

We know where spot prices are today. To this day, some analysts are still trying to make sense of what happened since 2011. Even if one finds oneself with more questions than answers, we can always use history as a guide.

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PCGS here we are

The grades are in from my latest submission. I didn’t expect top grades but lately it’s been tough. Now, maybe it’s getting a little out of hand. All of my coins came back in body bags expect my 65 coin that came back 63. That’s probably just me but doing a little digging seems to indicate maybe it’s not.

In the past months, I’ve submitted a few PCGS crack-outs to another TPG with better results. The results weren’t spectacular, just reasonable. Kind of like the way things used to be.

BBB complaints for the company are up. 8 complaints closed in last 3 years while 4 complaints closed in last 12 months.

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Is this PCGS‘s apparent attempt to combat grade inflation? If this is their way to discourage cracking out PCGS holders, it’s working (for me). Maybe it’s time to lay off raw coins for a bit to wait out of this phase? And buy already certified PCGS coins?

While I both love and hate PCGS, I‘ve always had and will continue to love my coins more.

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The Internet is not hurting the coin market

Many things are contributing to the recent declines in the market for rare coins. It doesn’t matter who said it, or how many of times it’s been mentioned. The Internet is not hurting the coin market. While it’s true that coins became more available than in the 1980s, what is also true is that they have been posted for sale on eBay for over 20 years.  A better question to ask would be, what has changed since the late 90s? Since 2003?

-Apathy of the younger generation? This is as big as a concern today as it was in the 1980s. It’s important to address but it’s not a new problem.

-Grade inflation? This is a new problem and it’s serious. Over all these years, mistakes happen. The grading services can help combat this by honoring their guarantees.

-Low gold and silver prices? Not new, prices have been low before. The problem seems to be the direction they‘ve been heading. Since 2011, it has been an epically slow crash coinciding with interest rate lows and the longest stock market bull run in history. Don’t forget crypto currencies. Definitely new.
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-Baby Boomers retiring in large numbers? If many of them collected rare coins and want to cash out, the effects can seem enormous. Hopefully, most are passed on to the succeeding generation who appreciate and will guard them. Too many coins dumped into the market could cause lowered prices. Who wants to be left holding the bag? Protect yourself. Check your numbers often and get out of the declining areas. Get the nicest quality coins. Don’t hold stuff that everyone has. Then cross your fingers as you ride it out. It’s a phase after all.

The Internet is hurting the coin market? Lol

 

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Gold & Silver update

My prayers and heart goes out to the shooting victims in Las Vegas. Needless to say, we live in dangerous times. Whatever it is, we need to work hard together as a country to care about one another and place a greater value on life.

The stock market today is like silver in the 1970s. Could it crash & burn like the 1979 silver run-up? Presently, over-speculation in the stock market is normal and expected. Unlike silver, nobody wants the party to end. If Wall Street went into silver, it would perform in the same manner. The trick is to run it up and know when to pull it out. Easier said than done. When the market crashes, it’s sudden death.

For silver, the trick is to see it come down and buy close to the bottom as possible. I think that has already happened. Silver ‘crashes’ in slow motion, unlike Wall Street.

For silver, 2011 was most like 1979. We should also take 1967 and 1982 in account. Over-speculation (for lack of a better word) in those years led to multi-year lows. Prices had mostly recovered in 1972 and 2006 respectively. Over-speculation in 1982 finally turned around in 1992.

In short, people should be selling more stocks when they run up and buying more silver when they run down.
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When silver hit bottom in 2015, we began to see a disconnect between the paper spot and physical markets. It is apparent the powers that be did not want to see it continue. Sustaining such a phenomenon could end the spot paper market as physical ‘derives’ itself into something new. They barely dodged that bullet. Today, paper spot and physical prices are again in equilibrium.

Doing a little math with gas prices and inflation, I’ve made a few conclusions.

Currently, silver seems a better value than gold. Since 2001, silver performed better than itself  in the past, although the gold and silver ratio has widened in favor of gold. Silver tends to ramp up rapidly when it’s severely undervalued (high gains in 1972 or doubling in 5 years in 2006).

Whether spot silver goes up or physical silver detaches itself from spot prices, it’s all going to work out.

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